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Among reasons that reach a claim, the stronger ones are about this case, can be checked and cover many cases.
Paper packet. Every task here also exists on screen, where it is checked automatically; answers written on paper are not assessed by Nydus. When you are back at a device, enter your answers there.
You will weigh reasons that all reach a claim, using three questions — is it about this very case, can it be checked, does it cover many cases — and choose the one that would most move a careful listener who starts out unsure.
You can tell a reason that reaches its claim from one that only shares the topic. But two reasons can both reach a claim and still not be equally good. This lesson is about weighing them.
| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| This lesson's terms | Support is how much a reason helps a claim. A reason that can be checked is one someone else could look at, count or measure and get the same answer. A careful listener is someone who starts out unsure and changes their mind only for good reasons. |
| Supported conclusion | The conclusion the stated reasons reach, including the limits on its group, time or conditions. |
Claim: the crossing by the park is dangerous. Four people give reasons, and all four reach the claim:
They are not equally good. Ask three questions of each:
The city council's count says yes to all three, so it gives the most support. The feeling says yes to none.
A good way to judge is to imagine a careful listener who starts out unsure. Which reason would change their mind? Not the one said most loudly, and not the one from the nicest person: the one that gives them something real to go on.
A weaker reason is not worthless. Your uncle's slip is a real case, and it might make you want to look harder. It just cannot carry the claim on its own.
Another way: picture
Think of reasons as legs on a table. A count of many cases is a thick wooden leg. One story is a thin stick. A feeling is a leg drawn on in chalk: it looks like a leg and holds nothing up.
Another way: steps
More yeses mean more support.
Two reasons are easier to compare when they aim at the same claim. 'The route is shorter' and 'The route has nicer trees' answer different questions unless we know the goal. If the goal is arriving sooner on foot, measured walking times matter more directly than a view of trees. Begin with the question, then ask what each reason actually shows.
A checkable reason tells you how somebody could test it. A count should say what was counted. A comparison should use the same sort of measure on both sides. 'Seven out of ten students preferred it' gives more information than 'seven students preferred it', because the total matters. Seven out of ten is most; seven out of a hundred is not. Large-sounding numbers can hide small shares.
More examples can strengthen a reason, but only if the examples fit the claim. Asking fifty members of the swimming team which sport they prefer is not a fair guide to every student's favorite sport. A smaller but better spread of students may be more useful for that question. At this stage, ask who was included and who was left out instead of treating the biggest number as automatically best.
Strongest among the supplied reasons does not mean certain. Three measured journeys can be better evidence than one guess, while still leaving room for roadworks next week. Say what the evidence supports now and what could change it. That gives you a reasoned comparison without promising more than the facts can carry.
Claim: The roof of the hut is leaking. Both reasons below reach the claim. Which gives it more support?
The supported answer is: There is a puddle under the same spot every time it rains, and a wet patch on the ceiling above it.
The distinction in this case is that the puddle and the patch are about this hut and anyone can go and look; the other is about old huts in general.
Claim: The tomato plant needs more water. Both reasons below reach the claim. Which gives it more support?
The supported answer is: Its leaves droop by midday, and the soil is dry a finger's depth down.
The distinction in this case is that drooping leaves and dry soil are about this plant today; the other is true of nearly every plant.
Claim: Team Blue is the best team in the quiz league this season. Both reasons below reach the claim. Which gives it more support?
The supported answer is: Team Blue has won seven of the ten quizzes so far.
The distinction in this case is that seven wins out of ten covers the whole season so far; one win is one evening.
Claim: The road outside the park needs a lower speed limit. Both reasons below reach the claim. Which gives it more support?
The supported answer is: A speed camera recorded more than half the cars there going over the limit last week.
The distinction in this case is that the camera's record can be checked and covers a whole week; a feeling cannot be checked.
Claim: The Saturday market is busier than the Sunday one. Both reasons below reach the claim. Which gives it more support?
The supported answer is: Last month the stall-holders counted about 400 visitors on each Saturday and about 150 on each Sunday.
The distinction in this case is that a count over a whole month covers many days; one visit is one day, and a remark.
Claim: These soccer boots are too small for Jay. Both reasons below reach the claim. Which gives it more support?
The supported answer is: When Jay stands in them, his toes press hard against the end.
The distinction in this case is that toes pressing the end is what too small means; the color says nothing about the fit.
Claim: most people on our street want a crosswalk. Put the four reasons in order, from the most support to the least.
We knocked on all 40 doors and 31 people said yes. / All 6 people at the bus stop this morning said yes. / Mr Lee, who lives by the road, says he wants one. / I just have a feeling that most people want one.
Knocking on all forty doors and getting thirty-one yeses covers the whole street and can be checked: first. Six people at the bus stop saying yes is a real count, but of six people, not the street: second. One neighbor's wish is one person: third. A feeling that most people want one cannot be checked at all: last.
Claim: the number 7 bus is often late. Match each reason to what it is made of.
The bus log shows it was late on 18 of the last 20 days. / It was late last Tuesday, I remember that. / I just feel like it's always late. / Buses in the capital are often late. / a count of many cases / a single case / only a feeling / about somewhere else
The bus log for twenty days is a count of many cases. Last Tuesday is one case, remembered. A feeling that it is always late is only a feeling, and buses in the capital are a different place altogether.
A letter says the town pond needs cleaning. Mark the one reason a careful reader could check for themselves.
The town pond is a disgrace. / Everyone in town hates the state of it. / The warden's count found 43 plastic bottles in the water on Monday. / It will only get worse if we wait.
It's a disgrace and everyone hates it are feelings and a guess about other people. It will only get worse is a promise about the future. The warden's count found 43 plastic bottles in the water on Monday is a count someone else could repeat. That is the checkable reason.
A news story claims that the new playground in Ash Park is a success. Which of the reasons quoted in the story gives the claim the most support?
The supported answer is: The gate counter has recorded about 250 visits a day for six weeks.
Use the three questions: this very playground? checkable? many cases? The gate counter's record of about 250 visits a day for six weeks says yes to all three. One busy afternoon is one case; the builder's pride is not a count of anything; and playgrounds elsewhere are not this one.
The student council is considering a second serving table. One student says the line feels endless. Another records the wait for lunch on four ordinary days: twelve, eleven, thirteen and twelve minutes. The claim is that the current line usually takes more than ten minutes on those days. The recorded times support that narrow claim more strongly than the word endless. Each recorded wait is above ten, and another person can check how the timings were made.
Next ask whether the measurements answer the city council's bigger question. They show a waiting problem during the measured period. They do not yet show that a second table will fix it. Perhaps the delay is in preparing food rather than serving it. A trial with two tables, using the same start and finish points, would provide a closer comparison.
Suppose a trial gives waits of six, seven, six and five minutes. In this invented trial, each new wait is below every old wait. That is a reason to investigate or continue the change. Record whether attendance and the menu were similar, because a quiet lunch would make the comparison less fair.
Write a careful recommendation: 'The timed waits were shorter on the four trial days, so a longer trial of two tables is supported.' Do not write that two tables will always halve every line. The stronger evidence allows a more useful claim, but it still has a boundary. A good reason includes both its result and enough detail for someone else to understand what was measured.
Treating all relevant reasons as equal. Both reach, and one can still weigh far more.
Picking the most exciting reason. A vivid story about one day can feel stronger than a dull count of thirty days. It is not.
Counting how sure someone sounds. I'm absolutely certain is a fact about the speaker, not about the claim.
Claim: the class goldfish is too cold. Reason A: goldfish like warm water. Reason B: the tank thermometer has read 12 degrees every morning this week, and the pet shop says 18 is the lowest safe level.
Claim: the class goldfish is too cold. Reason A: goldfish like warm water. Reason B: the tank thermometer has read 12 degrees every morning this week, and the pet shop says 18 is the lowest safe level.
Ask the three questions of each.
State the result of this reading move.
Ask the three questions of each.
This records the link just identified: Claim: the class goldfish is too cold. Reason A: goldfish like warm water. Reason B: the tank thermometer has read 12 degrees every morning this week, and the pet shop says 18 is the lowest safe level.
A is about goldfish in general, not this one. B is about this tank, this week, and anyone can read the thermometer.
A is about goldfish in general, not this one. B is about this tank, this week, and anyone can read the thermometer.
B says yes to more questions.
State the result of this reading move.
B says yes to more questions.
This records the link just identified: A is about goldfish in general, not this one. B is about this tank, this week, and anyone can read the thermometer.
So B gives more support. A is roughly true, and it would be just as true of a goldfish in a warm tank.
So B gives more support. A is roughly true, and it would be just as true of a goldfish in a warm tank.
The stronger reason is about this case.
Claim: Pip is the best speller in the club. Reason A: Pip won last Friday's spelling game. Reason B: Pip has won nine of the twelve games this year.
Claim: Pip is the best speller in the club. Reason A: Pip won last Friday's spelling game. Reason B: Pip has won nine of the twelve games this year.
Both are about Pip, and both can be checked.
State the result of this reading move.
Both are about Pip, and both can be checked.
This records the link just identified: Claim: Pip is the best speller in the club. Reason A: Pip won last Friday's spelling game. Reason B: Pip has won nine of the twelve games this year.
Now ask how much each covers. A covers one Friday; B covers twelve games.
Now ask how much each covers. A covers one Friday; B covers twelve games.
Many cases beat one.
State the result of this reading move.
Many cases beat one.
This records the link just identified: Now ask how much each covers. A covers one Friday; B covers twelve games.
So B gives more support to the best in the club.
So B gives more support to the best in the club.
The question that decided it was does it cover enough?
Identify the task before answering its parts.
Members checked: {{b0}}
Other preferences: {{b1}}
Stronger reason: {{b2}}
The three labeled spaces ask for different parts of this analysis, so keep their order visible.
Locate the evidence for the first part.
A checked the entire declared group of 12 members, so there is no missing member in this supplied count.
This is the supplied information that bears on work out members checked.
Work out members checked.
12
A checked the entire declared group of 12 members, so there is no missing member in this supplied count.
Work out other preferences.
4
The count leaves 12-8=4 members with another preference.
Work out stronger reason.
A
The 8 Friday preferences are more than half this group; one friend's preference alone does not establish most.
Write the completed analysis in its original order.
12 / 4 / A
Read these entries with their labels: Work out members checked. / Work out other preferences. / Work out stronger reason.
Claim: the library's back corner is too noisy for reading. Reason A: it seems loud to me. Reason B: a sound meter read over 70 decibels there on four afternoons out of five.
Claim: the library's back corner is too noisy for reading. Reason A: it seems loud to me. Reason B: a sound meter read over 70 decibels there on four afternoons out of five.
Ask the three questions of A.
Now ask them of B.
Which gives more support, and which question decided it?
Claim: *today is too hot for the long walk.* For each reason, say whether someone else could check it. Use these category identifiers: A = can be checked; B = cannot be checked. Select the identifier, not the category's words.
| Could someone else check it? | |
|---|---|
| The thermometer by the gate read 31 degrees at noon. | |
| It feels like the hottest day ever. | |
| The pool sold 300 tickets this morning, twice as many as usual. | |
| I bet the ice cream van runs out by two o'clock. |
Two reasons support 'Most members prefer Friday.' D asks all 15 members: 11 prefer Friday. A reports that one friend likes Friday. Write the total checked by D, the number not preferring Friday, and the letter of the better-supported reason.
Work out members checked.
b0
Read the whole size of the group checked.
Work out other preferences.
b1
Subtract the Friday choices from the total.
Work out stronger reason.
b2
Compare evidence about the whole group with a single friend's preference.
Two reasons support 'Most members prefer Friday.' D asks all 19 members: 15 prefer Friday. A reports that one friend likes Friday. Write the total checked by D, the number not preferring Friday, and the letter of the better-supported reason.
Members checked: b0
Other preferences: b1
Stronger reason: b2
Two reasons support 'Most members prefer Friday.' B asks all 13 members: 9 prefer Friday. C reports that one friend likes Friday. Write the total checked by B, the number not preferring Friday, and the letter of the better-supported reason.
Members checked: b0
Other preferences: b1
Stronger reason: b2
Two reasons support 'Most members prefer Friday.' C asks all 14 members: 10 prefer Friday. D reports that one friend likes Friday. Write the total checked by C, the number not preferring Friday, and the letter of the better-supported reason.
Members checked: b0
Other preferences: b1
Stronger reason: b2
Two reasons support 'Most members prefer Friday.' B asks all 17 members: 13 prefer Friday. C reports that one friend likes Friday. Write the total checked by B, the number not preferring Friday, and the letter of the better-supported reason.
Members checked: b0
Other preferences: b1
Stronger reason: b2
Lesson test: one question per skill, one attempt each, no hints. Your answers are checked when you submit.
Two reasons support 'Most members prefer Friday.' A asks all 16 members: 12 prefer Friday. B reports that one friend likes Friday. Write the total checked by A, the number not preferring Friday, and the letter of the better-supported reason.
Members checked: b0
Other preferences: b1
Stronger reason: b2
You can say which of two relevant reasons gives more support, and why. Say which of the three questions a count of thirty days answers better than one story. Next: reasons that sound strong and do not settle anything.
16. Your turn: the noisy corner, step 2
Now ask them of B.
Imagine a careful listener who starts out unsure.
16. Your turn: the noisy corner, step 3
Which gives more support, and which question decided it?
Imagine a careful listener who starts out unsure.